Welcome back to Tim West's 'TIMING THE MARKET'

Trades are intraday in the major US stock market indexes.

I will post a time to enter - a time to exit - and two exit prices with each idea. One exit is to close out a profit, the other to close out a loss. I may also use trailing stops from time to time.

The best way to track my performance will be when I get the Collective2 account up and running. If you haven't already been to www.collective2.com then please do.

Tim

April 28, 2009

Trades are NOW posted at Collective2 !

www.collective2.com

My program is called 3DSNP - search for it - or I'll post a link here on another post.

For the unique and powerful 3-dimensional view of price, volume, and pricing which has given us so many successful trades so far.

You will be able to monitor the trades from there and you can have an account "auto-traded" based on the signals that I enter from my computer. All you do is set up your account and fund it, then subscribe to the signals.

It isn't cheap to subscribe, but then again the profits seem extraordinary.

So far today, the very BULLISH action in all the indicators has been challenging to catch. So far I've taken a couple of trades to catch the rally, but so far missed the move from 858 in the S&P futures up to 882. It required about 10 pts of risk down to 848 before it found traction and rallied.

Good fortune to you

AFTER - MARKET COMMENTARY

As we watch the World financial markets strain under the weight of unknown losses and the uncertainty with which the Federal Reserve and the US Gov't will stand behind whatever assets they choose to back - admitedly GM is NOT one of my highest choices of assets to save, but apparently Pelosi has decided it is worth saving. Well, it seems the financial markets have concluded that enough is enough. More market players decided to exit their short positions in the financially much stronger Japanese Yen - and they also exited their long positions in crude oil and gold. So, as a sideline comment to this crazy euphoria-for-change, well "WE'VE GOT CHANGE" happening.

I'll stop commenting on needless noise that the rest of the media handles so well ------

I keep a very close eye on the Yen because it alerts me to what is going on: If the Yen is up, I'm looking for what is being liquidated. Today that was gold and oil.

I saw a legitimate buy signal in the VIX-put-call but I failed to execute the stop and reverse strategy that I have employed successfully on three other occasions. So, after the first hour of heavy, heavy put buying, I waited 3 hours to execute a buy once momentum had turned to the upside - well - that momentum lasted all of about 15 minutes before the bombay doors opened some more to the downside.

So, since Mr. Obama was elected, the SP500 is down 15%. The rally INTO the election was 20%, which to my mind counts as a bull market just as a 20% decline counts as a bear market. So, we are almost back to a bear market again after only a couple of days at a 20% lift from the lows in October.

So, today was a losing day for the Vix-Put-Call Strategy. But I'm posting that here at the end of the day. A loss of 1.00 DIA pt.

4:15PM EST

SPY - NOT DIA

I am now quoting the SPY and not the DIA. I had to change it on my software (QCharts) when the powers that be moved the primary quoting to the NYSE from the AMEX for the DIA etf. The ETF's are very similar but it makes sense to be in the more liquid, more diversified SPY.

EXIT LONG - 2:22PM

Big gain up into gap resistance.

PUT BUYING = BUY SIGNAL FOR DIA

Heavy put buying from 9:30-10:00AM was, I think, a function of heavy European hedging and selling into our market.

We want to do a fade trade here and go long and then reverse and go short if the trade doesn't materialize.

What we are seeing here is a global hedging hot potato decline. Russia gets hammered, for example, and sells stocks in Europe. Europe buys, then tries to unload in the US by selling here when we open. If we don't find a home for this new selling, then it will be "OPEN THE BOMBAY DOORS" and let it fly (drop).

So, at this point, we want to be long. Let's pick 1PM for entry. Use a stop of 0.50 DIA pts instead of 1 pt.

If stopped out with a 0.50 pt loss, then go short and risk 0.75 pts so our total risk is 1.25 pts.

If that starts to work, then just cover at the close AFTER dropping your stop down to breakeven after it is up by 1.00 DIA pt. Sound complicated? Not really. Read it again and again if you have to.

12:52PM EST NOW

CALL BUYING today was BEARISH (this morning)

I told all of my IM clients about this market setup today, which was positioned for a FALL due to several observations.

I simply can't continue to give away this information - it is extremely valuable and it is what I have taken years to learn and many losses along the way.

I am considering creating an account at Collective2 where you can follow the signals there and subscribe to the service and you can have an account auto-traded based on what I am seeing with the 3-D view of the market. www.collective2.com Once I get my log-in code I will alert you with a post here so you know how to find me.

Today's closing buy signal was more of a sign that the market had seen enough put-buying on Friday to warrant a strong base in place for today. However, if we test Friday's low tomorrow or later this week, then I will have to wonder how strong this current base is and then I may change my tune to suggest that we will violate the lows seen in the last month.

Let's take one day at a time with this strategy.

I am reading some great books lately - I imagine some of the pearls of wisdom will shine through to this blog.

Enjoy the day.

SIDE NOTE - One last thought - I am married to my wife, my kids, my family, my house, my responsibilities as a father, brother, son, and to God - so I don't have to be married to my investments. There are many ways to view the short-term nature of trading and its impact on the market itself and on ourselves as individuals, so I will assume that all of you are already aligned with short-term trading.