Friday, October 10, 2008

STOCK MARKET SETUP

VIX is now up to 70+.

The only way to trade now is to pick spots very carefully, then give yourself the chance to let one winner turn into a huge winner.

The signs of CAPITULATION so far are showing themselves in price declines but not in put-activity.

I see a reason to go LONG here, but it is hanging on a weak setup:
Put-call is 1.96 = bullish
VIX is HIGH but below the high of the day. 73.37 last, high is 74.33.
Price action in 65 minutes in the DIA is contracting (compared to extremely HIGH price volatility recently) for the last 2 bars.
9:30-10:35 = first bar
10:35-11:40 = second bar
11:40-12:45 = third bar
We are in the 4th bar today, so the 2nd & 3rd bars were tighter than the 1st bar.
Put-call is now showing 2.50 (at 1:22PM) which is nicer still for a buy signal.
DIA is 81.67 now.

Given that the average HOURLY range on the DIA is >2 pts, our risk has to be at least that much.

CONSEQUENTLY :

BUY 81.54 (last for DIA)

Risk 2 pts.

Target 4-6 pts. Exit 1/2 at 2 pts. Raise stop to entry on 1/2.
Raise stop to breakeven after 1 HOUR.
1:24PM NOW.

(ESz8 865 last for reference)

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