19.85 Last, +1.53
IPO 13.50 this year, rallied to 28.20, then fell back to 14.31.
I'm a believer in electric cars and think that A123 may profit from the production of lithium-ion batteries.
There is positive news today about a JV with another company.
Do your own due diligence.
Risk is relatively high as the stock moves about 10% per day. As time progresses I foresee the volatility dropping. I would consider buying at intervals for the next year. The hard part is setting a stop loss level. $14 seems logical to me, but also it is obvious. Perhaps $12 as that is 10% below the IPO price. So, buy slowly so that by the time a year goes by we can see if A123 is a leader or a laggard in the field. If it is a leader we can keep buying more and build up to a 10% position in a portfolio, (use 10% as a cost basis calculation).
Tim West 11:10AM
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
BUY SILVER
Silver exchange traded funds are available -
Latest prices: SLV 17.35, SIVR 17.68
The pullback in Silver represents a buying opportunity. I view downside risk as reasonable while there is good potential for upside into year-end. I'd like to see a retest of 19-20 in SLV by January 15 and if not then exit. Raise stop to breakeven on January 1st.
Review trade on January 1st to potentially increase position.
Tim West 10:18AM Wednesday, Dec 16th
Latest prices: SLV 17.35, SIVR 17.68
The pullback in Silver represents a buying opportunity. I view downside risk as reasonable while there is good potential for upside into year-end. I'd like to see a retest of 19-20 in SLV by January 15 and if not then exit. Raise stop to breakeven on January 1st.
Review trade on January 1st to potentially increase position.
Tim West 10:18AM Wednesday, Dec 16th
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
VIX THIS LOW SPELLS TROUBLE AHEAD
SELL SHORT THE STOCK MARKET NOW: RISK 1%. TARGET 3% INITIALLY.
4:55PM Eastern Standard Time.
Markets are closed. 1104.75 Mar10 ESH0 Futures.
Additional comments to follow.
Tim West
4:55PM Eastern Standard Time.
Markets are closed. 1104.75 Mar10 ESH0 Futures.
Additional comments to follow.
Tim West
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Somewhat bearish environment -
Today's VIX & PUT/CALL RATIO movement is a sign of over-optimism and is therefore bearish.
Here's what happened so far today:
Initially prices declined from 8880 on the DJIA to 8820 (futures, Sep) and it was difficult to assess the situation - there was put-buying of course, and could be construed as bearish, so when prices advanced to new highs (back to 8900), that implied there is a solid cushion of support under the market at 8820. Prices have waffled from 8850 to 8900 since that time and then broke down to test 8820 late this afternoon.
What I've seen overall is a flat market with VIX falling and a high overall trading volume in puts.
I'm going to hold off on making a market call at this point - other than I'm concerned that a bearish event is setting up where short-term you get "put-selling together with falling prices" and that means a sharp selloff is likely just around the corner. [It is the opposite of when you see "call selling in a price advance", which is bullish, of course. It shows concern that prices will fall and of course, that means prices advance. ]
I may just offer the idea that 8840-8850 can be sold with an 8875 stop - targeting the same on the downside, about 8810-8800 into the close.
Many more earnings announcements are due this week as this is a big EPS release week for the S&P500 consituents.
Tim West 3:38PM EST 8828 YMu9 last
Here's what happened so far today:
Initially prices declined from 8880 on the DJIA to 8820 (futures, Sep) and it was difficult to assess the situation - there was put-buying of course, and could be construed as bearish, so when prices advanced to new highs (back to 8900), that implied there is a solid cushion of support under the market at 8820. Prices have waffled from 8850 to 8900 since that time and then broke down to test 8820 late this afternoon.
What I've seen overall is a flat market with VIX falling and a high overall trading volume in puts.
I'm going to hold off on making a market call at this point - other than I'm concerned that a bearish event is setting up where short-term you get "put-selling together with falling prices" and that means a sharp selloff is likely just around the corner. [It is the opposite of when you see "call selling in a price advance", which is bullish, of course. It shows concern that prices will fall and of course, that means prices advance. ]
I may just offer the idea that 8840-8850 can be sold with an 8875 stop - targeting the same on the downside, about 8810-8800 into the close.
Many more earnings announcements are due this week as this is a big EPS release week for the S&P500 consituents.
Tim West 3:38PM EST 8828 YMu9 last
Monday, July 20, 2009
SELL SIGNAL 943.50 ESU9
Sell signal registered at 12:30PM
New high was needed after three hours = weak market
Sell short and use 5 pt stop. Lower stop to breakeven after 1 hour. Trail profit by 5 pts.
Target 5 pts initially.
12:43PM now with ES at 944.00 bid
New high was needed after three hours = weak market
Sell short and use 5 pt stop. Lower stop to breakeven after 1 hour. Trail profit by 5 pts.
Target 5 pts initially.
12:43PM now with ES at 944.00 bid
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Another BUY & SELL SIGNAL SETUP - wait until 2:50PM
Heavy put buying in the morning along with the strong down move in the market is a setup for the market to continue moving down today, however, there needs to be a new low made every 3 hours to confirm that sellers have orders to keep pressure on the market.
Strategy 1 - if no new low between now and 2:50PM - then buy and use a stop under the low of the day. If stopped out - go with that new low and go short - stop out using a 3 pt stop and lower that stop down to breakeven after ONLY 15 minutes.
Strategy 2 - if a new low is made between now and 2:50PM, then go with that downtrend and risk 5 pts to make 7 points on the ES. Lower stops to breakeven after 30 minutes.
Tim 2:31PM EST
Strategy 1 - if no new low between now and 2:50PM - then buy and use a stop under the low of the day. If stopped out - go with that new low and go short - stop out using a 3 pt stop and lower that stop down to breakeven after ONLY 15 minutes.
Strategy 2 - if a new low is made between now and 2:50PM, then go with that downtrend and risk 5 pts to make 7 points on the ES. Lower stops to breakeven after 30 minutes.
Tim 2:31PM EST
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
BUY SIGNAL: Stop under lows or 5 pts in S&P500
It has been 3 hours since the low was made at 11:40AM today.
Since there was strong put buying up until that point, this is a low-risk buy signal.
Target 5 S&P points or 50 DJ's points.
Risk 5 S&P points or 50 DowJones points.
Raise stop after 1 hour to breakeven.
2:45PM
Since there was strong put buying up until that point, this is a low-risk buy signal.
Target 5 S&P points or 50 DJ's points.
Risk 5 S&P points or 50 DowJones points.
Raise stop after 1 hour to breakeven.
2:45PM
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Generally bearish environment - sell signal
Bearish indications were very strong earlier, but have softened somewhat -
Sell 4 pt rallies off the low in ES instead of 5 pts...
Target 4 pts. Risk 3 pts.
899.25 low, so sell anything over 903.25.
11:06AM
Sell 4 pt rallies off the low in ES instead of 5 pts...
Target 4 pts. Risk 3 pts.
899.25 low, so sell anything over 903.25.
11:06AM
Bearish reading in first 30 minutes today
Even though we are near important options expiration support in the S&P500 at 90.00 -
There is a very negative setup occuring here this morning where we should be selling any rallies of 50 Dow Points or 5 ES points. 902.5 is the low for ES, so enter short at 907.50.
Lower stop after 30 minutes to entry/breakeven -
Target 7 pt profit.
10:12AM
There is a very negative setup occuring here this morning where we should be selling any rallies of 50 Dow Points or 5 ES points. 902.5 is the low for ES, so enter short at 907.50.
Lower stop after 30 minutes to entry/breakeven -
Target 7 pt profit.
10:12AM
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Buy Signal: Short term Only 1:52PM
ESU9 908.25 Low, 911.50 last, 914 target.
Buy 911 or better with a 908.50 stop.
Reverse and go short at 907 if stopped out.
Use a 911 stop once short.
The setup here is high put buying, short term which could set up a short-covering rally.
The background is that options expiration is this Friday and 900 is a level that will likely attract the market.
910.75 last
1:53PM
Buy 911 or better with a 908.50 stop.
Reverse and go short at 907 if stopped out.
Use a 911 stop once short.
The setup here is high put buying, short term which could set up a short-covering rally.
The background is that options expiration is this Friday and 900 is a level that will likely attract the market.
910.75 last
1:53PM
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Awaiting a signal -
Awaiting more extreme readings in the indicators I am tracking in order to make a market call -
Monday, June 8, 2009
At 10:05AM 930.50 last, "Heavy Put Buying" strategy
Overnight high is 939.75, current low is 928.00.
We are sitting at 930.50.
Since we are turning up and holding above the lows here, I suggest going with a "long position", but reverse and go short on a new low, risk no more than 3 pts in each case.
If the put-buyers are front-running their own sales, then we'll move aggressively lower today.
If we do get short on a new low under 928, then after 30 minutes, lower stop to breakeven.
Tim
We are sitting at 930.50.
Since we are turning up and holding above the lows here, I suggest going with a "long position", but reverse and go short on a new low, risk no more than 3 pts in each case.
If the put-buyers are front-running their own sales, then we'll move aggressively lower today.
If we do get short on a new low under 928, then after 30 minutes, lower stop to breakeven.
Tim
Friday, June 5, 2009
BUY DIPS of 5 pts OFF OF HIGHS
946 recent high at 12:55PM
941-940-939 are decent entry prices for longs -
I view 948 as a great exit for any longs.
Risk 3 pts from entry. 938 stop. 948 target.
@ 941, risk is 3 pts, upside 7 pts (3:7)
@ 940, risk is 2 pts, upside is 8 pts (1:4)
@ 939, risk is 1 pt, upside is 9 pts (1:9)
I recommend 1 of each, if you can afford the loss.
The environment is BULLISH here - indeed -
945.25 last 1:01PM
941-940-939 are decent entry prices for longs -
I view 948 as a great exit for any longs.
Risk 3 pts from entry. 938 stop. 948 target.
@ 941, risk is 3 pts, upside 7 pts (3:7)
@ 940, risk is 2 pts, upside is 8 pts (1:4)
@ 939, risk is 1 pt, upside is 9 pts (1:9)
I recommend 1 of each, if you can afford the loss.
The environment is BULLISH here - indeed -
945.25 last 1:01PM
Long Entry - 937 or better - ESM9
First 30-45 minutes is again nervous "call selling" on the price decline - I saw and called out an entry at 936 on the ESM9 and think 5 points is possible from this oversold level, risk was 4 pts, now raise stop to 936 - (trading 939.50 as I type) - target is 941 on this oversold bounce -
There is a good chance we will see an extra-ordinary powerful signal today that is worth 10-15 handles in the S&P - so be ready for that signal - be on alert -
For now, trade oversold from the long side and exit on strength -
Friday, June 5, 10:26AM
There is a good chance we will see an extra-ordinary powerful signal today that is worth 10-15 handles in the S&P - so be ready for that signal - be on alert -
For now, trade oversold from the long side and exit on strength -
Friday, June 5, 10:26AM
Thursday, June 4, 2009
10:24AM - BULLISH environment to buy today -
Nervousness abounded in the first 30-60 minutes -
With the S&P now revisiting the lower end of today's range, I believe this is a low risk buying opportunity.
Buy here - risk 3 pts - target 4 pts.
12:04PM
With the S&P now revisiting the lower end of today's range, I believe this is a low risk buying opportunity.
Buy here - risk 3 pts - target 4 pts.
12:04PM
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
CLARIFICATION
The first hour of trading showed strong sell interest and may be a sign of a short term bottom for today. The way to trade this is to wait for 3 hours and be assured the sellers are not still in the market, which is the reason for the "REVERSE AND GO SHORT IF STOPPED OUT" at 927 (from long position at 932). If the market can break to 927 then I will presume the sellers have the upper hand for the day and we should go with that trend and once again, risk 5 pts in order to make 7. Once short, lower stops to breakeven after 30 minutes if still in the position.
Background noise today - Crude oil is down and that is weighing on the S&P. The S&P and crude are still tightly correlated, unfortunately. Bernanke is testifying so that has the market 'on hold'.
11:56AM
Background noise today - Crude oil is down and that is weighing on the S&P. The S&P and crude are still tightly correlated, unfortunately. Bernanke is testifying so that has the market 'on hold'.
11:56AM
New Buy Signal at 10:30AM is an hour old - but still valid
Strong indications of fear suggest a tradable bottom for today:
BUY
Risk 5 pts (reverse and go short if stopped out)
Target 7 pts.
Raise stop to breakeven after 1 hour.
932 last.
BUY
Risk 5 pts (reverse and go short if stopped out)
Target 7 pts.
Raise stop to breakeven after 1 hour.
932 last.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Buying opportunity - Risk 5 pts - target 7 pts
ESM9
Strong call selling is indicative of a "wall of worry".
Buy this dip from 949 to 944.
Risk 5 pts from entry.
Raise stop to breakeven after 30 minutes.
Strong call selling is indicative of a "wall of worry".
Buy this dip from 949 to 944.
Risk 5 pts from entry.
Raise stop to breakeven after 30 minutes.
Comments on Yesterday's Action
Monday, June 1, 2009 -
I witnessed the first bearish activity in the market rally so far -
I will see how this translates into market action today -
Call buying on the price rally is a sign, short term, that we could see a reversal to the downside.
9:28AM
Tim West
I witnessed the first bearish activity in the market rally so far -
I will see how this translates into market action today -
Call buying on the price rally is a sign, short term, that we could see a reversal to the downside.
9:28AM
Tim West
Friday, May 29, 2009
Entry Here:
Long 904 is 9.25 pts off the high - close to the 10 pts theorized -
Now 905.50 -
Upside is 5 pts or 909, stop is 901.
Raise stop to breakeven after 15 minutes.
Exit after 30 minutes.
11:34AM
Now 905.50 -
Upside is 5 pts or 909, stop is 901.
Raise stop to breakeven after 15 minutes.
Exit after 30 minutes.
11:34AM
NEUTRAL MARKET CONDITION: FRIDAY 11:09AM
No trades yesterday setup.
Today I see that conditions are ripe for continued sideways action - the cross currents are in place to keep the market oscillating in a range and right now I see 10 pt rallies in ES as a short sale and 10 pt declines as a buy, each risking 5 pts and targeting 5 pts.
There are bearish and bullish factors that may very well keep us contained the rest of the day -
bond market rebounding on weak PMI data and deflation concerns and deeply oversold technical condition of the bond market is a bearish factor. The rising YEN is a bearish factor and the bearishness expressed in the options market is a bullish factor as I see it.
902.25 LOW in ESM9 since 9:30AM-
913.50 HIGH
906.50 last, +1.00 on the day.
I'll update parameters when I see a specific entry price.
11:15aM
Today I see that conditions are ripe for continued sideways action - the cross currents are in place to keep the market oscillating in a range and right now I see 10 pt rallies in ES as a short sale and 10 pt declines as a buy, each risking 5 pts and targeting 5 pts.
There are bearish and bullish factors that may very well keep us contained the rest of the day -
bond market rebounding on weak PMI data and deflation concerns and deeply oversold technical condition of the bond market is a bearish factor. The rising YEN is a bearish factor and the bearishness expressed in the options market is a bullish factor as I see it.
902.25 LOW in ESM9 since 9:30AM-
913.50 HIGH
906.50 last, +1.00 on the day.
I'll update parameters when I see a specific entry price.
11:15aM
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Last Buy Signal Stopped Out at Breakeven 907
898.25 last.
I'm seeing a 913 to 896 correction in the ESM9 futures -
but I am not seeing a setup to give us a low-risk trade that I am familiar with.
It is tempting to buy just because the price is down and we are falling into what could be support zones - but I am not seeing what I often see at inraday market bottoms -
900.25 last...
I'm seeing a 913 to 896 correction in the ESM9 futures -
but I am not seeing a setup to give us a low-risk trade that I am familiar with.
It is tempting to buy just because the price is down and we are falling into what could be support zones - but I am not seeing what I often see at inraday market bottoms -
900.25 last...
More bullish environment now at 11:45AM
The market environment is more constructive than at 11:00AM as more pessimism has crept into the market as prices are holding - this sets up a bigger profit target and now a higher stop loss.
Raise the stop from 905 to 907 and raise the upside target to 915 from 912.
910.50 last
Raise the stop from 905 to 907 and raise the upside target to 915 from 912.
910.50 last
11:00AM - Bullish/Neutral Environment
Buy signal here risking 5 pts to make 5 pts in ES.
After 30 minutes, raise stop to only 3 pts risk.
After 60 minutes, raise stop to breakeven.
909 as I started typing, 907.50 last.
11:05AM EST
After 30 minutes, raise stop to only 3 pts risk.
After 60 minutes, raise stop to breakeven.
909 as I started typing, 907.50 last.
11:05AM EST
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
ES 911 High = Buy Signal at 906 on 5 pt pullback
Raise stop to breakeven after 15 minutes from entry.
OR, exit at 4pm.
OR, exit at 4pm.
11:35AM - No pullbacks of 5 pts in ES
Bullish Environment - no pullback yet to enter long after the 10:00AM Consumer Confidence #.
904.25 high, 902.5 last at 11:37AM
I still suggest buying at 5 pts off the high, risk 4 pts, target 7 pt profit.
ALSO - raise stop to breakeven after just 15 minutes (if there is an entry)
904.25 high, 902.5 last at 11:37AM
I still suggest buying at 5 pts off the high, risk 4 pts, target 7 pt profit.
ALSO - raise stop to breakeven after just 15 minutes (if there is an entry)
Bullish Environment = Buy 5 pt ES, or 50 pt YM pullbacks
At 10:30AM the environment is bullish after a strong consumer confidence reading of 54.9 vs 40.8.
The high in the ES is 902.50 and the YM 8423
Buy 5 pt pullbacks in ES at 897.50, risk 4 pts, target 7 pts profit.
Buy 50 pt pullbacks in YM at 8373, risk 40 pts, target 70 pts profit.
Tim
10:36AM.... new highs were just reached at 904.25 and YM 8436.... adjust accordingly
The high in the ES is 902.50 and the YM 8423
Buy 5 pt pullbacks in ES at 897.50, risk 4 pts, target 7 pts profit.
Buy 50 pt pullbacks in YM at 8373, risk 40 pts, target 70 pts profit.
Tim
10:36AM.... new highs were just reached at 904.25 and YM 8436.... adjust accordingly
Friday, May 22, 2009
BUY SP500 12:42PM
JUNE ES 890.50 LAST.
Targeting 895 within an hour. Exit at 895. Risk 887.
Raise stop after 30 minutes (at 1:15PM EST) to breakeven entry price.
Based on pattern: HCV_FV (my code to track the signal)
12:44PM now
Targeting 895 within an hour. Exit at 895. Risk 887.
Raise stop after 30 minutes (at 1:15PM EST) to breakeven entry price.
Based on pattern: HCV_FV (my code to track the signal)
12:44PM now
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Welcome back to Tim West's 'TIMING THE MARKET'
Trades are intraday in the major US stock market indexes.
I will post a time to enter - a time to exit - and two exit prices with each idea. One exit is to close out a profit, the other to close out a loss. I may also use trailing stops from time to time.
The best way to track my performance will be when I get the Collective2 account up and running. If you haven't already been to www.collective2.com then please do.
Tim
April 28, 2009
I will post a time to enter - a time to exit - and two exit prices with each idea. One exit is to close out a profit, the other to close out a loss. I may also use trailing stops from time to time.
The best way to track my performance will be when I get the Collective2 account up and running. If you haven't already been to www.collective2.com then please do.
Tim
April 28, 2009
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