Thursday, September 11, 2008

SELL SIGNAL NOW! DIA @ 113.09

I've been watching VIX & Put/Call for a few days now without much comment -

BUT

Today... with the Lehman news swirling around, an odd event has happened.

VIX went up to 26 today (25.04 as I type)

AND

the put/call is a lowly .67 right now at 3:21PM

Considering the possibilities, this action is indicative of "BULLS IN THE HOUSE" and not a low risk signal for longs. The only way I can see that this could be bullish is if the call activity is from new SHORTS who are using the calls to hedge their short positions. So, what we'd need to see in that case would be upward price movement to be bullish (insightful, right!).

Without hedging, I'll say that this is outright bearish, and here is how to trade it.

SHORT HERE: DIA @ 113.09 LAST
STOP & REVERSE @ 114.00

Risk = 1 DIA pt, potential = 2 pts.

Best to you,

Tim

3:25PM

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