Thursday, September 18, 2008

Commentary from 12 Noon: High VIX, High Put/Call

VIX is now over 37 (37.40 last) and put/call is again high with spikes over 2.5-3.0, suggesting rampant put-buying. When markets fall on put buying, it means that Portfolio Managers are BUYING PUTS ahead of their stock sales to help them achieve a better average price. The rule on that is 3 hours though. What we always saw was that pattern when I was an institutional block-equity trader at a major NY firm. What we want to see is when they stop selling (for 3 hours) or when they exercise those puts (which is hard to find out, other than expiration).

I am aware that we, at any time, could get a crazy advance.

The Bloomberg alerted me to the fact that "Lehman's Hedge Fund accounts" (Called Prime Broker accounts) were frozen. Not exactly sure when they will release those accounts or what, but it sure is scary. Recall when Refco closed and many accounts were frozen.

Other note: I pushed our Westport Traders Meeting back to Oct 1st. It was supposed to be last night. http://westporttradersnetwork.blogspot.com

Tim
12:00NOON

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