Thursday, September 4, 2008

Market is Poised to Rally: Reverse Strategy

11,252 last. From the last post, the put buying led to a further 90 pts down in the YMu8 contract to hit a low of 11,190. The bounce from there of 60 points should have taken you out had you not followed the "cover shorts" at 11,272.

The put/call backed off from 1.00 and dropped back down to 0.74 right after 1pm until 2:10PM. This means that put/call is moving around too much to pin it down for a 3 hour time frame. Based on that, it will require very tight stops and quick fingers on the trigger to exit according to plan.

Vix was just back at 1.00 indicating to me that it is safe to attempt a buy. Now I would look for 50 pts off of a recent high 11,266 (11,266-50 = 11,216) to enter long, and use only a 40 pt stop.
Exit at the close or 60 pts, whichever happens first.

11,224 last. 3:24PM

Exit

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