Friday, September 19, 2008

VIX dropped too far, Call Activity too high

After this dramatic advance the bullishness is extreme and likely there isn't much protection against a downside move from this level. The downside support from put purchases this week and last week are at much LOWER levels. So, expect a dizzying test of these NEW BUYERS up here at DIA 113-116. In other words, I'd expect a drop.

VIX has fallen from 42 down to 31 now, which is a dramatic drop in VIX in such a short time. VIX had even extended down to 28 from its peak at 42, which is even more extreme.

Low risk trade here, in my opinion, to go short.

DIA is peeling off a little, but expect to take a little heat towards the mid-point of that stop. In other words, I would expect the market to rally a little to test us, perhaps 0.50 DIA points, but each new high is like a mountain climber searching for oxygen. It will get harder and harder to maintain this altitude. Oxygen levels are low and as any experienced climber will tell you - go down if you can't breath.

12:55PM, DIA @ 114.27 bid.

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