Wednesday, November 12, 2008

AFTER - MARKET COMMENTARY

As we watch the World financial markets strain under the weight of unknown losses and the uncertainty with which the Federal Reserve and the US Gov't will stand behind whatever assets they choose to back - admitedly GM is NOT one of my highest choices of assets to save, but apparently Pelosi has decided it is worth saving. Well, it seems the financial markets have concluded that enough is enough. More market players decided to exit their short positions in the financially much stronger Japanese Yen - and they also exited their long positions in crude oil and gold. So, as a sideline comment to this crazy euphoria-for-change, well "WE'VE GOT CHANGE" happening.

I'll stop commenting on needless noise that the rest of the media handles so well ------

I keep a very close eye on the Yen because it alerts me to what is going on: If the Yen is up, I'm looking for what is being liquidated. Today that was gold and oil.

I saw a legitimate buy signal in the VIX-put-call but I failed to execute the stop and reverse strategy that I have employed successfully on three other occasions. So, after the first hour of heavy, heavy put buying, I waited 3 hours to execute a buy once momentum had turned to the upside - well - that momentum lasted all of about 15 minutes before the bombay doors opened some more to the downside.

So, since Mr. Obama was elected, the SP500 is down 15%. The rally INTO the election was 20%, which to my mind counts as a bull market just as a 20% decline counts as a bear market. So, we are almost back to a bear market again after only a couple of days at a 20% lift from the lows in October.

So, today was a losing day for the Vix-Put-Call Strategy. But I'm posting that here at the end of the day. A loss of 1.00 DIA pt.

4:15PM EST

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