Friday, November 7, 2008

BEARS ARE GETTING SQUEEZED (BUY SIGNAL)

This is a "squeeze the bears" day in the market.

Those who have overpaid for very expensive put protection are selling out their bets on lower prices and effectively putting a floor under stock prices today. I think what is happening is people who owned the puts are liquidating them and turning around with the proceeds and putting that money to work in the market. The successful pricing of the WFC 2ndary today at 27 is another positive sign for the market. Anything is interpreted as bullish news in a bull market. We can call this a bull market by some definitions. #1 reason - we have rallied 20% from the low. #2 reason - VIX peaked over 80. That will happen once a decade and it happens at bottoms. #3 reason - very low interest rates. #4 reason - very low investor sentiment implies that people have sold stocks down to their comfort level. #5 reason - massive mutual fund redemptions mean that the little investor is already OUT of the market now. #6 reason - all the markets of the world went down together, this was NOT a US-only decline. #7 reason - I'll think of another 50 reasons and put them on this blog - perhaps - stocks are cheap, very cheap and so-called "experts" fear now that the #'s reported by companies are not accurate.

Let's stop this line of thinking to explain this bull market and just get on with it.

Buy 88.72 last. 89.72 target. 87.72 stop.
Raise stop to breakeven after 1 hour (after 30 minutes raise to 88.22)

12:53PM

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